TL;DR
Spain and France are the top favorites to win the 2026 World Cup, with odds around +450. U.S. bettors are heavily backing their home team, despite long odds, creating significant betting action and liabilities for sportsbooks.
Spain and France are emerging as the clear favorites to win the 2026 World Cup, with odds around +450, according to sportsbooks. Meanwhile, U.S. bettors are backing their home team at an unusually high rate, despite the team’s long odds, creating notable liabilities for bookmakers. This betting pattern highlights the tournament’s regional significance and the American public’s enthusiasm for the event on home soil.
Bookmakers such as DraftKings and Caesars report Spain and France as the leading contenders, with odds ranging from +450 to +500, making them the most popular bets among the public. BetMGM data shows over 30% of wagers and nearly half of the handle in the World Cup winner market are on these two teams, reflecting strong confidence in their chances.
DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello noted a recent surge in betting on Spain and France, especially over the past week, emphasizing their popularity among bettors. Caesars Sportsbook soccer lead Mark Bickerdike confirmed that Spain and France are considered the teams to beat, with a clear drop-off in public interest for other top contenders like England, Argentina, and Brazil.
Despite the favorites’ dominance, Portugal has attracted significant betting action, with its odds shortening from 10-1 to as low as +750 at some sportsbooks. Meanwhile, the U.S. team, with long odds of around 60-1, is the eighth-most backed team by handle at DraftKings, driven by regional enthusiasm and the tournament’s location in North America.
Bookmakers acknowledge the risk posed by the American support, with some accepting the liabilities given the potential for a deep U.S. run. Avello stated that sportsbooks intend to offer fair prices on the U.S. team, knowing that the increased betting activity is inevitable and beneficial for overall engagement.
Impact of Betting Trends on World Cup Outcomes
The heavy betting on Spain and France solidifies their status as tournament favorites, influencing betting markets and potentially affecting odds movement. The significant support for the U.S. team, despite long odds, underscores the tournament’s regional importance and could lead to substantial liabilities for sportsbooks if the team advances far. This betting pattern also reflects broader fan engagement and regional pride, which can impact betting behaviors and market dynamics during the event.
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Historical and Current Betting Patterns in World Cup
Historically, teams like Brazil, Germany, and Italy have been long-standing favorites, with Spain winning in 2010 and Brazil in 1994. The 2026 tournament is notable for the strong betting support for European teams like Spain and France, and the rising enthusiasm for the U.S. team, which is playing on home turf for the first time since 1994. The betting landscape is shaped by regional proximity, team performance, and public sentiment, with sportsbooks adjusting odds accordingly.
“Those are the two favorites that have been very popular throughout, but especially lately. Over the last week or so, those two are getting an influx of money.”
— Johnny Avello, DraftKings sportsbook director
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Unconfirmed Factors Influencing Future Betting Trends
It remains unclear how betting patterns will evolve as the tournament progresses, especially if the U.S. team advances further. The actual impact of betting on tournament outcomes is also uncertain, as odds can shift rapidly based on team performance and public betting behavior. Additionally, the long-term implications of regional betting surges are still developing and could influence odds adjustments.
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Upcoming Market Movements and Tournament Milestones
As the World Cup begins, bookmakers will monitor betting activity closely, adjusting odds in response to team performances and betting volume. Key milestones include the U.S. team’s first match, potential upsets, and how betting on Spain, France, and other favorites shifts. The tournament’s progression will likely influence odds and betting strategies in real time.
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Key Questions
Why are Spain and France considered the favorites?
Bookmakers and betting patterns indicate strong confidence in Spain and France, with their high odds and large betting handle reflecting their status as top contenders based on team strength and historical performance.
How significant is U.S. betting support despite long odds?
U.S. bettors are backing their team at an unusually high rate, making it the eighth-most backed team by handle at DraftKings, which could lead to substantial liabilities for sportsbooks if the team advances far in the tournament.
What are the risks for sportsbooks with heavy U.S. betting?
Given the long odds, sportsbooks face potential large payouts if the U.S. team wins or advances deep into the tournament, but they are accepting this risk due to regional enthusiasm and the event being hosted in North America.
Are there any other underdogs attracting betting action?
Yes, Portugal has seen increased betting interest, with odds shortening from 10-1 to around +750, and Haiti, with 2500-1 odds, has also attracted bets, though the risk of large payouts is even higher.
Source: Google Trends
